Brief # 11 Congressional Campaign Update
Our Election Predictions
By William Borque
Congressional Campaign Updates is an exclusive feature of USRESIST NEWS. Written by reporter William Bourque. The updates will help our readers follow key races in the House and Senate that are key to the ability of democrats to gain control of both houses of Congress.
As we wind closer and closer to election day races are tightening and hearts are racing. Key senate races such as Maine and North Carolina are closer than they have been all race and we are seeing surges in donations as the final days of the campaign trail wane. Here is the official election forecast of US Resist News.
Doug Jones has faced an uphill battle since he beat Roy Moore in his initial recall election several years ago in a state that is historically red. He has voted with democrats most of the time, voting against confirming Amy Coney Barrett and in favor of impeachment on both charges levied against the President. He faces football coach Tommy Tuberville in his race and, despite being the incumbent, we expect Jones will lose this seat in a tight contest. As for the presidency, we expect Trump to take all nine electoral votes that Alabama has to offer.
In Alaska, a tight senate race is brewing between incumbent republican Dan Sullivan and democrat-backed challenger Al Gross. Gross, who is on the ballot as an independent, has been gaining momentum in the wake of Lisa Murkowski’s vote to confirm Amy Coney Barrett. Polls suggest that Sullivan has a good chance of maintaining his seat, but Alaska is historically hard to poll. Despite this, we think that Sullivan will hold onto his seat and President Trump will win all 3 of Alaska’s electoral votes.
In Arizona, a Senate race that many forecasted to be down to the wire seems to have already been decided, with Mark Kelly having a clear polling edge against incumbent Martha McSally, who took over John McCain’s seat when he passed away in 2018. As for the presidency, Arizona generally goes red, but with this much enthusiasm for Kelly, not to mention Cindy McCain’s endorsement of Biden, we expect that Arizona will go to Biden.
A tight senate race between former governor John Hickenlooper and Cory Gardner has been brewing for months now and it has just about reached a boiling point. Recent polls have Hickenlooper with a sizable polling lead, but all bets are off as it gets down to election day. Gardner has seen his favorability rating plummet with his recent support of Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination, so we expect Hickenlooper to take this seat and flip it blue. In the presidential race, Colorado is generally a safe blue and we expect nothing to change here, with Biden winning comfortably.
Florida has long been known as a toss-up in every presidential election, and this year is no different. The voter turnout in the presidential race has been incredibly high this year and many are saying that this bodes well for democrats, who typically suffer from low turnout in Florida. That being said, we expect Florida to go blue, with a large amount of the Latinx vote pushing Biden forward to secure the victory. Florida also has a race that could push the House even more to the left, with democrat Margaret Good pushing against incumbent Vern Buchanan, who’s popularity in his district has taken a hit after his close ties with President Trump. We expect Good to win the 16th district and to help secure the House for the democrats.
Georgia has emerged as a battleground in recent election cycles and 2020 is the most promising for a democratic win since Clinton in 1992. Trump beat Hillary Clinton by about 5% in 2016, but recent polling data indicates a dead heat between Biden and Trump. We expect Biden to squeak out a victory because of the record-breaking turnout. In addition to the close presidential numbers, Georgia also has several close Senate races. In the special election incumbent Kelly Loeffler seems to be struggling to stay afloat against two opponents, fellow GOP member Doug Collins, and democrat Raphael Warnock, who has polled at +6, according to Monmouth University. In the other race, incumbent David Perdue has struggled to keep up with upstart democrat Jon Ossoff, who holds a narrow polling edge, again according to a Monmouth University poll. We expect Warnock and Ossoff to win in tight races that should tip the balance of the Senate.
Iowa, home to the caucus, has again become a hotspot of the presidential campaign. Former presidential hopeful Pete Buttigeg has been a staple of the midwest, seen campaigning in many states for Biden. On the Trump side, the President himself has been making appearances in the state, with some democrats worried with a new poll indicating a Trump lead. We think that the President will hold onto Iowa where he won by almost 10% in 2016. In the Senate, incumbent Joni Ernst, elected in 2015, is holding a small lead over democrat Theresa Greenfield. Many expected Ernst to have a stronger lead coming into election day, but we don’t expect that this should have an effect, and we expect that Ernst will hold onto her seat.
In Maine, it’s a tale of two districts. In ME-01, the southern district in the state, all signs point towards a resounding Biden win. In ME-02, however, the race is coming down to the wire, with many expecting Trump to eke out a victory after several recent visits. We expect that Biden will take all four electoral votes, narrowly capturing district 2, which will likely be decided by mail-in ballots. As for the Senate, the most expensive race in state history is historically close, with challenger Sara Gideon the favorite to unseat four term incumbent Susan Collins, long-regarded as a moderate, fair senator. It seems that Mainers have grown tired of the party loyalty and we expect that they will opt for a change by electing Gideon.
Michigan, which President Trump won by a hair in 2016, seems to have fallen back to the democrats. As final polls come in it seems that Joe Biden has done enough campaigning to win back the state that was so crucial in the 2016 loss. A new Emerson College poll reports that Biden has a 7 point advantage, a lead that many expect to wane when election day comes around. Despite this, we expect Biden to win by a comfortable 4-6% margin and to collect all 16 electoral votes. In the Senate race, incumbent Gary Peters seems to have staved off republican challenger John James, who has based his campaign off of his military service and business knowledge. We expect Peters to retain this seat by a narrow margin.
Montana’s presidential race isn’t exactly high-stakes, with only 3 electoral votes in play. We expect Trump to win in the state that he won by over 100,000 votes in 2016. The Senate, however, is where Montana becomes of interest. Republican incumbent Steve Daines has faced scrutiny for his vote to confirm Justice Amy Coney Barrett last week and is facing a strong opponent, former governor Steve Bullock, in his race. Bullock is poling at +1 coming into election day, indicating that the race will be decided by a small margin. We forecasted a win by Bullock in early May and we are sticking to that pick, as we expect that the blowback from the Supreme Court confirmation vote will ultimately cost Daines his seat.
North Carolina is once again expected to play a crucial role in the election of the President and, as of election day, it is still a toss-up. Sources tell US Resist News that the mail-in balloting system in North Carolina has been full of bugs, with many voters waiting weeks to receive ballots. Another factor to evaluate in North Carolina is the African-American vote, something that many democrats worried Biden wouldn’t be able to win. However, recent data seems to show that voters of color favor Biden, which means that we expect him to secure victory in the state, albeit by a close margin. North Carolina is also home to a high-profile Senate race, with incumbent Thom Tillis polling behind former state senator Cal Cunningham. Cunningham’s lead has waned as election day approaches, but a recent Marist College poll has him securely in the lead at +10, a consequence of Tillis’s support of Amy Coney Barrett. We think that Cunningham will cruise to a win in a crucial state.
Ohio is once again a potential swing state and polling data represents that nobody has a clear lead yet. Much like Pennsylvania, many are concerned about Biden’s plan to reduce energy subsidies to fossil fuel companies, which could spell a loss for him. It is also worth noting Trump won in 2016 by just under 8%, indicating a swing that may be too much for Biden to make up. No republican in recent history has won the presidency without winning Ohio, so if the blue wave does in fact hit, expect that to be curtains for Trump. Despite recent polls indicating a Biden lead by 1%, we expect that Trump will take Ohio, along with its 20 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania, similarly to North Carolina, is again expected to be a crucial swing state in this election cycle. President Trump won an incredibly tight race in 2016, winning only 50,000 more electoral votes than Hillary Clinton. Biden has held a significant advantage in many polls, but his comments about fracking and the future of fossil fuels may have many Pennsylvanians concerned. Biden has assured his supporters he doesn’t plan to ban fracking, but rather to reduce subsidies given to the fossil fuel industry. Trump has played these concerns up in recent weeks, and this has been capped off by a recent endorsement of Trump by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the largest newspaper covering Pittsburgh. Biden’s lead has been waning but we still believe that Biden will likely win the state in an incredibly tight fashion.
The race for the presidency in South Carolina will likely fall to President Trump, given the fact that he won by almost 15% in 2016. Trump’s base is in the more rural, western parts of the state, and we expect that this population will be enough to win Trump the nine electoral votes they have to offer. The Senate race, however, is laced with uncertainty, as underdog Jamie Harrison has shown incredible tenacity in recent debates and is now leading Lindsey Graham in several polls. However, it is important to note President Trump’s impact on the state, and we expect that Harrison’s polling lead will vanish once votes are counted and Graham will retain his seat, albeit as part of the minority.
Texas is a state that has been increasingly blue, with this election being the first in recent memory that Democrats will have a chance to turn blue. President Trump won handily in 2016, by just under 10%. However, recent trends, such as the 2018 senate race that saw Beto O’Rourke narrowly defeated, indicate that Texas may be ready to turn blue for the first time since 1980. Record turnout in high-population areas such as Dallas and Houston represent Biden’s shot to win the 38 electoral votes that Texas has to offer, and we forecast that he will come up just short. In the Senate, incumbent John Cornyn is facing a tight race with democratic challenger M.J Hegar, an Air Force veteran. Cornyn has been polling with a 4-point lead, which feels safe this close to election day. However, if a blue wave hits Texas on election day, don’t be surprised to see Hegar do what Beto couldn’t, to flip a Texas Senate seat blue. We still think that Cornyn will retain his seat, but if a blue wave does hit Texas, we could see Biden and Hegar both win narrowly.
Wisconsin is once again the home to a presidential battleground, and Joe Biden seems to have a secure lead in the polls. Of course, we all know the phrase that “polls don’t win elections”, but it feels safe to say that Biden is likely to secure the 10 votes that Wisconsin is allocated. In a recent New York Times and Siena College poll, 79% of those polled had already voted, representing the unique times that we are living in. In addition to this, Biden polled at 52% among likely voters, besting Trump by an 11 point margin. Although we’ve seen chaos in Wisconsin in recent years, we forecast that Biden will defeat Trump and flip Wisconsin blue.
New Hampshire: Biden
New Mexico: Biden
New York: Biden
North Dakota: Trump
Rhode Island: Biden
South Dakota: Trump
West Virginia: Trump
Final Electoral Forecast
Biden Win 351-187
Democrats control senate 53-47